The United States must also ensure that some of its conventional capabilities are organized, trained, and equipped for these ever-expanding conflicts. It’s not the final, titanic clash that Taiwan has long feared, with Chinese troops storming the beaches. Much of the recent interest in understanding gray zone conflicts has been sparked by the two clearest cases we see today: Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, and Chinese activities in the South China Sea. For example, current doctrine identifies security force assistance (SFA) as one of … For example, current doctrine identifies security force assistance (SFA) as one of the 12 core activities for SOF. They involve some aggression or use of force, but in many ways their defining characteristic is ambiguity — about the ultimate objectives, the participants, whether international treaties and norms have been violated, and the role that military forces should play in response. These form a “gray zone” between traditional notions of war and peace. For the United States, effectively addressing gray zone conflicts will require a coordinated interagency response. It further shows the challenges linked … Each of these confrontations is characterized by “hybrid” threats that may combine subversion, destabilizing social media influence, disruptive cyber attacks, and anonymous “little green men” instead of recognizable armed forces making overt violations of international borders. Such warfare is conducted in the “grey zone” of … In viewing, for example, the hot wars between these two states’ proxies, it Below the level of war, gray zone conflicts pose a challenge to U.S. efforts to pursue its interests. If the spectrum of conflict is conceived as a line running from peaceful interstate competition on the far left to nuclear Armageddon on the far right, gray zone conflicts fall left of center. Those numbers each exceed all of the SOF in the U.S. armed forces. Of the many unconventional challenges in the maritime realm, grey-zone operations are perhaps the most difficult. Learn more about Competing in the Gray Zone. It is relatively cheap and, using social media’s unparalleled power as a propaganda vector, can be extraordinarily effective. Special operations forces have played a key role in the major conflicts of the last 15 years — riding on horseback in the early days of the Afghan conflict to direct airstrikes, advising Iraqi and Afghan security forces and their local auxiliaries in combat operations, even conducting the raid which killed Osama bin Laden. Countries like China and Russia increasingly use non-military means to achieve their objectives. Alternately termed non-linear war, active measures, or conflict in “the gray zone,” hybrid warfare has no single, agreed upon definition. November 6, 2016. A Russia-backed rebel fighter holds a sniper rifle while wearing a mask in Debaltseve, Ukraine, Friday, Feb. 20, … For example, in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon War, Hezbollah employed a host of different tactics against Israel. The United States must develop a new approach in the way it combats “gray zone” challenges. Temporary ad hoc solutions that simply thrust an ever-changing mix of conventional formations into these unfamiliar roles may prove both inadequate and ineffective for critical gray zone missions. Russian grey-zone activities against the US have grown and evolved, but information warfare remains the key component. of “restricted hybridism” largely absent of an offensive strategic calculus embedded in grey-zone conflict. Their column appears in War on the Rocks every other Tuesday. The Houthi insurgency increases the risk of a regional clash between Iraq and Saudi Arabia, which could also spark a broader Sunni-Shia conflict. The United States possesses the most capable armed forces in the world. The United States must increase its abilities to understand, adapt, and prevail in these conflicts so that they do not grow to a level of strategic disruption that threatens vital U.S. interests. The Cold War was a 45-year-long Gray Zone struggle in which the West succeeded in checking the spread of communism and ultimately The Techniques discussed include use of unattributed military forces, island building, and the use of proxy forces. The Growth of Grey Zone Campaigning. The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security The lines between military, economic, diplomatic, intelligence and criminal means of aggression are becoming increasingly blurred. In a telling exchange during a congressional hearing last Tuesday, … A Russian grey-zone strategy is to undermine faith in Western institutions and encourage populist movements by meddling in elections and using bots and … Gray Zone conflicts are not new, the El Salvador conflict in the 1980s and the Somalia Wars in the 1990s are examples of past Gray Zone or Shadow Wars supported by minimum US SOF Forces. of warfare itself that becomes indistinct. The Grey Zone is likely to be the pre-emptive strike method of choice at least against nations with no ‘soft’ deterrence capability. Neither the Army nor Marines has institutionalized these temporary capabilities by specializing more of their conventional units for just these types of conflicts — and this may prove a serious mistake. Gray zone techniques discussed include cyber espionage, forced technology transfers, and debt-dependency. At the height of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the preponderance of deployed forces — and all the directing headquarters — came from conventional troop formations, totaling over 170,000 in Iraq and nearly 101,000 in Afghanistan at their respective peaks. In a world of burgeoning gray zone conflicts, some conventional military units must be both re-trained and re-organized to conduct military operations at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. For example, current doctrine identifies security force assistance (SFA) as one of the 12 core activities for SOF. COPYRIGHT © 2021 WAR ON THE ROCKS. Gray zone actions are increasing from countries seeking to challenge the United States. Gray zone conflicts are not formal wars, and little resemble traditional, “conventional” conflicts between states. Gray zone conflicts abound in today’s world. Despite the challenges involved, one finding of this research is that the United States can treat the ongoing gray zone competition more as an oppor-tunity than a risk: By seeking to coerce, acquire influence within, or Ïd$sF3©µeÎ &M5j¼÷ÌgŽÉ`. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. And that dualism suited Beijing just fine. Traditional military capabilities remain essential for deterring and defeating threats at the higher end of the conflict spectrum, but effectively dealing with an era dominated by gray zone conflicts requires more. The Grayzone is an independent news website producing original investigative journalism on politics and empire. In the first part, we examine the concept of gray-zone conflict and how it relates to hybrid warfare and conventional interpretations and theories of conflict and war. Even if SOF does grow, their distinct nature and highly selective screening process means that they will always remain much smaller than conventional forces. War’s Future: The Risks and Rewards of Grey -. A product of the Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab, the in-house digital, multimedia, and design agency at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. hÞìYÝrÛ¶~‚¾.Û9ãˆÌt:c;uš6usl'éišZ‚%¶éTšôéÏeýYr|NoŠ¸Xü|ö[PNy&˜Ó‚)àn˜7ÜË´Á They can threaten critical U.S. interests through “strategic disruption” — the danger that instability in key regions can upend the international political or economic order. SOF are clearly purpose-built for conflict in the gray zone — but they may not be enough. Hybrid Warfare and Grey-Zone Conflict Hybrid warfare is most often understood in the context of antagonistic behaviour between Russia and the United States. Executive Summary. That demand will remain high during an era of gray zone conflicts, as the United States seeks to strengthen the capabilities of its allies and partners to address their own security challenges. Factors Influencing Grey Zone Conflicts ƒÕ£* endstream endobj 1017 0 obj <>stream SOF are ideally suited for the military component of interagency responses to gray zone conflicts, but SOF alone will not be enough. WINNING IN THE GRAY ZONE USING ELECTROMAGNETIC WARFARE TO REGAIN ESCALATION DOMINANCE BRYAN CLARK MARK GUNZINGER JESSE SLOMAN 2017. The Gray Zone is characterized by intense political, economic, informa-tional, and military competition more fervent in nature than normal steady-state diplomacy, yet short of conventional war. In the last decade, grey zone campaigning has become a recognised threat to Western nations. The Military Approach to Gray Zone Conflicts These gray zone actions include election meddling, economic coercion, and the ambiguous use of unconventional force. SOF exemplify the light footprint approach, yet deliver disproportionately high value in small numbers due to their key trademarks — individual and team maturity, operational experience and unique training. CSIS explores how the United States can better manage gray zone competition by speaking for American values, working with allies and partners, and ensuring that Americans understand how foreign powers seek to influence each of us every day. Cyber Warfare In The Grey Zone: Wake Up, Washington. A good example of this is the position Fiji Islands find themselves in today. In a world of burgeoning gray zone conflicts, some conventional military units must be both re-trained and re-organized to conduct military operations at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. conceptualizing the gray zone challenge and offer new policy options for the United States and its allies to consider in response. This relatively small investment in SOF may need to be revisited in an era of gray zone conflicts, where demand for their capabilities will only grow. In the context of the recent Skripal poisoning and repeated cyber attacks, much has been made of the new 'grey zone' between states where hybrid or asymmetric warfare is conducted. Countering Competition in the Space between War and Peace. The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts, Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach, The author presents a case study of the conflict between Hamas and Israel to show how gray-zone warfare is neither an innovative nor old phenomenon. In a world of burgeoning gray zone conflicts, some conventional military units must be both re-trained and re-organized to conduct military operations at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. Such warfare is conducted in the “grey zone” of conflict, meaning operations may not clearly cross the threshold of war. The best special operations forces in the world and more specialized conventional capabilities will both be necessary to fight and win in the gray zone. is a Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, and Dr. Nora Bensahel is a Distinguished Scholar in Residence, at the School of International Service at American University. Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine, for example, directly challenge international norms against territorial annexation and put NATO solidarity at risk. The United States is entering a period of intensifying strategic competition with several rivals, most notably Russia and China. Recent grey-zone activity in maritime Asia suggests an increase in hybrid warfare. gray-zone conflict and their relationship to hybrid warfare and the implica - tions for conflict management. SOF leaders routinely work closely with interagency partners, both in Washington and at embassies in conflict zones around the world. The ATM and SAF had staged two war games successfully last month. which distinctly fall under the purview of Grey Zone Conflict. gray zone is not a specific type of conflict but an operational environment as defined in Joint Publication (JP) 1-02, Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. The boundaries between democratic debate, activism and terrorism, criminality and warfare will themselves become contested. Yet military capabilities will remain an essential part of U.S. responses — and none more so than special operations forces (SOF). The Department of Defense (DOD) will rarely lead that response, because gray zone conflicts are designed, almost by definition, to circumvent traditional U.S. military power. Russia’s annexation of Crimea in early 2014 and its subsequent activities in eastern Ukraine fit the definition very well. The article unfolds in four parts. These shadow wars may not trigger conventional military responses, but many nonetheless pose great strategic risks for the United States. The CSIS International Security Program is undertaking work to examine the challenge the United States faces and to explore options for how to better organize itself and respond to these gray zone challenges. What do is meant by the ‘grey zone’? Related to hybrid warfare, the term political warfare commonly refers to power being employed to achieve national objectives in a way that falls short of physical conflict. Such warfare is conducted in the “grey zone” of conflict, meaning operations may not clearly cross the threshold of war. They can also provide highly capable headquarters elements to help oversee these complex challenges — organizations and leaders steeped in interagency and regional expertise, with deep cultural and unconventional warfare knowledge and experience. Yet they remain a tiny fraction of the U.S. armed forces. These gray zone actions include election meddling, economic coercion, and the ambiguous use of The content of the article presents the theory of unconventional warfare and its description, and familiarizes the reader with the concept of grey zone confl icts. Countries like China and Russia increasingly use non-military means to achieve their objectives. Small-stick diplomacy, in short, comprised a gray-zone strategy vis-à-vis the U.S. Navy but exhibited a dark, coercive hue toward Asian claimants. Contemporary adversaries’ will seek to operate in the ‘grey zone’, an indistinguishable space between peacetime and conflict. CSIS explores Chinese, Russia, and other countries’ use of economic power to coerce others into positions of disadvantage. However, as John Raine argues, the ever widening list of actions viewed as belligerent increases the likelihood of escalation. It is hardly new, however. grey zone definition: 1. activities by a state that are harmful to another state and are sometimes considered to be acts…. ... and coast guard vessels is a classic example of how grey-zone … the level of open war that are on the border between war and peace. In the first part, we examine the concept of gray-zone conflict and how it relates to hybrid warfare and conventional interpretations and theories of conflict and war… Finally, the Army must recognize that there is a distinct difference between hybrid threats in the gray zone and open-warfare … ISIL controlling parts of Iraq and Syria threatens global energy markets, decreases regional stability, and increases the chance of conflict between Sunni and Shia communities. Owning the 'gray zone'. Further complicating this environment is the fact that the United States is not at war in Africa, but the partners we support are at war. Yet U.S. conventional forces have been providing SFA in Iraq, Afghanistan, and beyond for many years, because the scale of the requirements far exceeded what SOF could provide. CSIS explores Chinese, Russian, Iranian, and other countries’ use of gray zone actions to coerce or compel others using ambiguous forces. They bring in-depth cultural knowledge to regional skirmishes around the world, often including language skills and years of building personal relationships. In the first part, we examine the concept of gray-zone conflict and how it relates to hybrid warfare and conventional interpretations and theories of conflict and war. Yet the United States will not be able to rely only on SOF to address these types of conflicts. Within the past 18 months alone, Russia annexed Crimea and is fomenting civil conflict and separatism in eastern Ukraine; the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) burst into international headlines by beheading civilians and grabbing land in Iraq and Syria; Boko Haram has been conducting a brutal insurgency in Nigeria; and the Houthi rebellion in Yemen has accelerated and driven the country’s president out of the capital. The Gray Zone is characterized by intense political, economic, informational, and military competition more fervent in nature than normal steady-state diplomacy, yet short of conventional war. Gray Zone conflicts are prevalent as ever and are now becoming the new normal with the recent examples as the Russia Shadow War in the Crimea, the growth of ISIL in the Levant, and the Boko-Harim incursion into West Africa. WASHINGTON: The entire US government — not just the Pentagon — needs to wake up to the intertwined threats of cyber warfare … Since 1989, proxy war cum cross border terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) by Pakistan is yet another example of the Grey Zone Conflict syndrome, wherein Pakistan sponsored terrorism has remained below the threshold of open war. These actions, which seek to gain advantage without provoking a conventional military response, are often difficult for free-market democracies to counter. Lt. General David W. Barno, USA (Ret.) U.S. officials expect this competition to be played out primarily below the threshold of armed conflict, in what is sometimes termed the gray zone between peace and war. Zone Conflict and Hybrid Warfare. That might be due to the ambiguity of international law, ambiguity of actions and attribution, or because the impact of the activities does not justify a response. SOF are deliberately designed, trained, and equipped to address the part of the conflict spectrum where gray zone conflicts occur. They can operate with low visibility and moderate risk, calling little attention to their actions. The Gray Zone environment in Africa is characterized by both clear policy guidance in West Africa and the Sahel and unclear policy in North Africa, Central Africa, and East Africa. Yet despite high demand and over a decade of experience, neither the Army nor the Marines has dedicated any force structure to the SFA mission. CSIS explores Russian, Chinese, and other countries’ use of disinformation, election meddling, and social media accounts to spread propaganda and sow division through gray zone tactics. When deployed, their teams routinely work under chief of mission authority, supporting the U.S. ambassador. In this paper we examine the involvement of non-state actors in grey-zone conflict, their relationship to hybrid warfare and the implications therein for conflict management. Learn more. Today, the Army is still organizing and training ad hoc organizations for 9-month deployments to train and advise Iraqi forces. But trends such as globalization, mass access to technology and communications, and asymmetric reactions to U.S. tactics in Afghanistan and Iraq are converging into an era where more and more conflicts are being fought at the lower end of the conflict spectrum. It is hardly new, however. Signing up for this newsletter means you agree to our data policy. Conference sessions will be devoted to defining grey zone tactics within the current international legal framework, examining grey zone tactics in the cyber domain, addressing issues of attribution and accountability, and examining the future of grey zone conflicts and the application or evolution of international law. Today’s geopolitical conflicts, especially among great powers, involve a desire to fundamentally revise the order of alliances as well as solidify new norms of conduct. The 'Gray Zone' Is the Future of War: Ongoing, Low-Level, and Undeclared. There are three fundamental global changes driving a significant shift from open warfare to sub-threshold tactics: We look at each in turn, outlining their impacts on defence and security doctrine. They took on huge loans from China which they are now finding difficult to pay off. There are currently about 69,000 active and reserve SOF personnel, out of a total uniformed force of nearly 2.2 million troops. In part because of this dominance, the world has been free of major power wars for decades. Gray zone conflicts are here to stay. America leads the world in military expenditures, spending more than the next nine nations combined — seven of which are either U.S. friends or allies. 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